Original Data · 2025 Study

The Cost of Selling in One Year

An original Goldstein & Co. analysis: how much of a $1M–$5M gain is lost to taxes when you sell in a single year versus spreading it over 10 years, across high-tax and no-tax states. Free to cite with a link.

Hans Goldstein, NPN 20602398

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📞 Hans Goldstein · 213-290-4977 · CA Insurance License #4322192 · Independent §453 specialist · Goldstein & Co. LLC

A Goldstein & Co. analysis, 2025. Methodology below. Free to cite with attribution and a link to this page.

We modeled the real, all-in tax on a capital gain, federal capital gains, the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax, and state tax, for a married-filing-jointly seller, and compared recognizing the entire gain in one year versus spreading it over 10 years with a §453 structured installment sale. The results show how much of a windfall is lost to one-year tax bracket compression, and how much spreading recovers.

Key findings

Effective tax rate: one year vs. spread over 10 years (MFJ, 2025)

Each cell shows: one-year effective rate / spread effective rate / estimated tax saved.

State$1M gain$2M gain$5M gain
California27%
4%
$237,707
32%
14%
$368,985
35%
22%
$657,985
New York29%
11%
$179,042
32%
19%
$267,042
34%
25%
$436,042
New Jersey29%
11%
$179,042
32%
18%
$267,042
33%
25%
$436,042
Oregon28%
10%
$179,042
31%
18%
$267,042
33%
24%
$436,042
Illinois23%
5%
$179,042
26%
13%
$267,042
28%
19%
$436,042
Texas / Florida (no state tax)18%
0%
$179,042
21%
8%
$267,042
23%
14%
$436,042
Washington (no state tax on real estate)18%
0%
$179,042
21%
8%
$267,042
23%
14%
$436,042

Why the one-year penalty exists

Capital gains brackets (0/15/20%), the 3.8% surtax, and state taxes are all assessed on a single year's income. Pile an entire gain into one year and it stacks into the highest brackets and surtax. Spread the same gain across years and most of it stays in the lower 15% bracket, often under the NIIT threshold, and at a lower marginal state rate. The structure that enables this, the installment method under IRC §453, has been in the tax code since 1926.

Methodology

Figures assume a married-filing-jointly taxpayer, the gain as the only income, 2025 federal long-term capital gains brackets and the 3.8% NIIT, and state tax using 2025 top marginal rates (California computed on full brackets including the 1% surcharge; New York and others at top marginal rate; Texas/Florida at zero). "Spread" assumes equal recognition over 10 years via a §453 structured installment sale (capital-gain portion only; depreciation recapture, where applicable, is recognized in year one and excluded here for clarity). These are estimates for illustration, not tax advice, actual results depend on the full return. Want your own numbers? Use the capital gains tax calculator.

Citing this study? Please attribute to "Goldstein & Co." and link to this page (https://goldsteinco.net/cost-of-a-one-year-sale/). Journalists and advisors welcome, contact 213-340-2018.

Frequently asked questions

How much tax do you pay selling a $2 million asset in California?

By this analysis, a married California seller pays roughly 32% in combined federal, NIIT, and state tax recognizing the full $2M gain in one year, versus about 14% if the gain is spread over 10 years, a difference of roughly $368,985.

Why does spreading a capital gain over years lower the tax?

Capital gains brackets, the 3.8% NIIT, and state taxes are all based on a single year's income. Recognizing a large gain all at once stacks it into the top brackets and surtax. Spreading it keeps most of the gain in the lower 15% bracket, often under the NIIT threshold, and at a lower marginal state rate.

Does deferring help even in no-income-tax states like Texas or Florida?

Yes. Even with no state tax, a large one-year gain still loses about 24% to federal capital gains plus the 3.8% NIIT. Spreading it over years keeps more in the 15% bracket and can avoid the surtax, recovering several percentage points.

What structure is used to spread the gain?

The installment method under IRC §453, specifically a structured installment sale, where an A-rated insurance carrier funds payments to the seller over a chosen number of years. The gain is taxed only as payments are received.

Can I get an estimate for my own sale?

Yes, use the free capital gains tax calculator, enter your sale price, basis, state, and years, and it estimates your one-year vs. spread tax and the savings.

Thinking about a big sale?

Before you sign anything, run your numbers with someone who structures the deal to be tax-smart and audit-ready from day one.

Call 213-340-2018 Run the Numbers →